Berlin, Germany – Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), reportedly concluded in 2020 that there was an 80% to 90% probability that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which caused the COVID-19 pandemic, originated from a laboratory in Wuhan, China.
This classified assessment, which remained undisclosed to the public at the time, was recently revealed by German media outlets. According to the report, the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) had been conducting experiments aimed at enhancing the transmissibility of viruses in humans.
Concerns about biosafety standards at the facility were heightened by intelligence findings that such work was carried out at Biosafety Level 2 (BSL-2) laboratories—conditions deemed inadequate for handling dangerous pathogens by international norms.
German Intelligence’s Investigation
The BND’s inquiry was initiated by the Federal Chancellery and involved consultations with virologists and intelligence experts. While not all specialists supported the lab-leak hypothesis, some concluded that the probability of a laboratory-related incident was growing.
Intelligence officials reportedly discovered bioinformatic evidence suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 may not have undergone a natural adaptation phase in its transition to humans—an anomaly that some experts argue supports the theory of artificial manipulation.
Despite these findings, the German government has refrained from commenting publicly, stating that intelligence reports are presented exclusively to parliamentary committees in closed-door meetings.
Ongoing Debate Over COVID-19 Origins
The origins of SARS-CoV-2 remain a contentious issue. In 2021, a World Health Organization (WHO) investigation initially deemed a lab leak “extremely unlikely.”
However, many scientists and intelligence agencies have since questioned this conclusion, arguing that the investigation lacked full access to critical data from China.
Germany was among the countries that, as early as 2020, pursued independent probes into the virus’s emergence.
Intelligence reports suggest that prior to the pandemic, Chinese researchers were also conducting studies on Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-like viruses, which have a significantly higher fatality rate.
This has raised fears that laboratory experiments in China may have involved enhancing such viruses’ ability to infect humans, potentially increasing the risk of future outbreaks.
Prominent German virologist Christian Drosten, initially a supporter of the natural origin theory, has expressed growing skepticism, warning that gain-of-function research on deadly pathogens should be subject to stricter global oversight.
International Implications and China’s Response
The BND’s findings were reportedly shared with the U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA, in 2024.
The CIA later released an assessment stating that a laboratory-related origin of COVID-19 was “more likely” than a natural spillover event but maintained “low confidence” in this conclusion due to insufficient evidence.
China has consistently denied allegations that SARS-CoV-2 leaked from a lab, insisting that the virus likely originated from an animal source. Beijing has also accused Western intelligence agencies of politicizing the issue and has rejected calls for further investigations.
Calls for Stronger Biosafety Regulations
While no conclusive proof has surfaced to confirm the lab-leak theory, the revelations from German intelligence underscore ongoing concerns about biosafety practices in high-risk research facilities worldwide.
The WHO has continued to call for greater transparency, urging China to grant unrestricted access to relevant data.
As the world grapples with the aftermath of the pandemic, experts stress the need for stricter international oversight of virus research to prevent similar crises in the future.
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