Paris, May 8, 2025 — A political storm erupted this week within France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) as party leader Marine Le Pen lashed out over a new opinion poll that excluded her as a potential 2027 presidential candidate.
The survey, commissioned by the Hexagone think tank, reportedly affiliated with conservative billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin, instead tested her protégé Jordan Bardella as the sole RN candidate — sparking intense backlash from Le Pen’s inner circle.
The poll, conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) and published on Monday, May 5, measured voter intentions for the upcoming presidential election.
However, it triggered alarm within the RN after it emerged that Bardella, currently the party’s president and Le Pen’s de facto heir, was listed as the RN’s only representative among the survey’s 10,000 respondents.
Le Pen’s frustration with the survey was so pronounced that she brought it up during her parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday, May 6 — an unusual move, as she typically celebrates favorable polling numbers.
According to party insiders, the RN leader viewed the decision to exclude her not as a methodological oversight but as a deliberate attempt to sideline her politically.
“This is not just a poll; it’s a political maneuver,” one RN deputy told Le Monde, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Marine sees Stérin’s hand in this. The omission of her name was not innocent.”
The Hexagone think tank, known for championing nationalist and ultra-conservative values, is widely seen as being aligned with Bardella’s vision of a younger, more polished far right.
The organization has been gaining influence in intellectual and donor circles, especially as Stérin — a prominent Catholic businessman and founder of the investment firm Otium Capital — deepens his involvement in French political life.
For Le Pen, who has run for president three times and reached the runoff in 2022, the poll’s implications are stark. While she has yet to formally declare her candidacy for 2027, her political maneuvering and continued visibility have indicated clear interest in another run.
The emergence of Bardella as a standalone option in national polling without her input is perceived as a threat to her authority within the party she built into France’s dominant far-right force.
Party officials reportedly contacted Hexagone before the poll’s publication to protest the exclusion of Le Pen’s name, but their appeals were unsuccessful.
The incident has fueled speculation of growing tensions between the Le Pen and Bardella camps, though both have publicly maintained a united front.
“This raises questions about external influence in shaping political narratives,” said a political analyst at Sciences Po. “If donors or ideologically driven think tanks are perceived as manipulating the succession within major parties, it could backfire.”
Neither Stérin nor Hexagone responded to requests for comment. Bardella, for his part, has remained silent on the controversy, fueling further speculation about internal rivalries and the future leadership of the RN.
As the 2027 presidential race begins to take shape, the rift exposed by the poll could mark the early signs of a power struggle within the far right — one that pits legacy against ambition, and party unity against external influence.
