A new study from the University of Antwerp has delivered an unexpected blow to one of Belgium’s flagship economic promises — that anyone who works should earn at least €500 more net per month than someone unemployed.
According to the research by the Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, this goal has already been achieved for nearly all Belgians. The study, reported by De Standaard, found that 94.5% of unemployed individuals would already earn at least €500 more by taking a full-time job, even at the minimum wage of around €2,070 gross per month.
“Nine out of ten unemployed Belgians would already earn more than €500 extra a month by working,” the researchers concluded. “Seven in ten would earn over €1,000, and one in five even over €2,000.”
On average, moving from unemployment to full-time work brings an income gain of €928 net per month, and €838 for those receiving social integration income. Even among higher allowance recipients, the difference remains €584.
The findings challenge Prime Minister Bart De Wever’s Arizona coalition and Reformist Movement (MR) leader Georges-Louis Bouchez, who have built political momentum around the promise to “make work pay.” Both leaders pledged fiscal reforms guaranteeing workers at least €500 more net per month than those unemployed — a reform now revealed to be largely redundant.
Researchers credit Belgium’s existing employment bonus system for this reality. The work bonus on social contributions, the fiscal employment bonus, and the social work bonus applied through personal income tax already create strong financial incentives to work.
“These targeted mechanisms are much more effective at stimulating employment than a general, costly tax cut,” explained Professor Ive Marx, who co-authored the study with Elise Aerts and Gerlinde Verbist.
However, the report highlights exceptions. Certain groups, particularly single mothers with low qualifications or households reliant entirely on social welfare, see minimal or no financial gain from employment once secondary costs — such as childcare, transportation, and the loss of specific benefits — are considered. About 54,000 people, or 5.5% of unemployed Belgians, gain less than €500 a month by working, and 1.4% may even lose financially.
For these vulnerable groups, taking up employment can create what the study calls a “new poverty trap.”
The timing of the research is politically inconvenient for the government as it finalises its 2026 budget and seeks €10 billion in savings. The findings undermine the justification for a sweeping tax reform centered on boosting work incentives.
“It’s a legitimate political choice to lower taxes if one believes Belgians pay too much,” said Professor Marx. “But to use it as an argument for increasing work incentives — that doesn’t hold up.”tax-free
In reality, the government’s proposed fiscal changes are more modest than campaign rhetoric, mainly focusing on raising the income threshold. That move would increase take-home pay by about €120 per month — far short of the €500 benchmark.
As Professor Marx summed up: “Work does pay in Belgium — and quite a lot. The question is no longer financial. It’s political”